Here are links to:
- the initiative (PDF from our website);
- a less-pretty scanned version of the initiative petition (on the Lt Gov’s website and on our our website);
- the initial fiscal impact statement (on the Lt Gov’s website and on our website); and
- the Lt Gov’s Initiatives and Referenda page with this same info.
Understanding the fiscal impact statement
The second paragraph details costs of administration, totaling about 1% of the carbon tax revenue. This seems reasonable.
Then comes the third paragraph, which contains most of the important stuff.
- They estimate carbon tax revenue of $243m in FY 2026 (i.e., the year ending June 30, 2026; note that our policy goes into effect Jan 1 2026 so this is only a half-year of revenue), $569m in FY 2027 (the first full fiscal year for our policy), and $611m in FY 2028.
- They estimate FY 2027 impacts to the General Fund (from lost sales tax revenue on groceries) of $221m.
- They estimate FY 2027 impacts to the Income Tax Fund (from the expanded EITC match) of $75m.
The key sentence is the last one: “Combining these impacts could result in net revenue increases to the following funds in the following amounts beginning in FY 2027”:
- “Income Tax Fund, $3 million”: This is a (very small) net increase in revenue for the Income Tax Fund (formerly called the Education Fund) resulting from a technical issue.
- “Aeronautics Restricted Account, $26.3 million”: This is the carbon tax revenue from aircraft fuel, which (in accordance with federal DOT regulations) goes into a special airport fund.
- “Transportation Investment Fund, $6 million”: This is (very small) net increase in revenue for the transportation fund resulting from a technical issue.
- “new Carbon Emissions Revenue Restricted Account, $237 million”: This is the amount left in the Carbon Tax Account when you take the carbon tax revenue ($569m for FY 2027) and subtract transfers to the Income Tax Fund ($75m for the EITC expansion, plus $3m extra from the first gory technical issue), the Aeronautics Restricted Account ($26.3m), the Transportation Investment Fund ($6m from the second gory technical issue), and the General Fund ($221m for the sales tax on groceries, and note that the General Fund is not included in this key sentence because it’s unchanged so it doesn’t see a “net revenue increase”): $569m – $75m – $3m – $26.3m – $6m – $221m = $237.7m.
- That $237m pays for $100m in clean air spending and $50m in rural economic transition funds, leaving $87m left over in the Tax Cut Fund.